Thursday, September 17, 2009

March Tomorrow

To all our friends in Iran (Persia): Protests are scheduled for Friday September 18, Quds (Jerusalem) Day. The regime tries to use this day to drum up support for attacking Jerusalem. In the United Arab Emirates, 53 people have been arrested in an Iran-directed plot to blow up Burj Dubai, the world's tallest building. In the meantime, the regime enriches uranium to build a bomb. If "dark energy" exists, it is in the minds of regimes that oppress women. In 1938 Neville Chamberlain sold out Czechoslovakia to buy "peace in our time" and got war. What sort of Neville Chamberlain would appease people like this?



Blogger nige said...

Public opinion was on Neville Chamberlain's side because the effects of war had been exaggerated in 1938 by the British War Office. Aerial bombing was predicted to cause 121 casualties/ton and the German air force was expected to deliver 600 tons of bombs daily on Britain, killing 2.2 million people per month, which for a long war is the same result as a heavy nuclear attack.

Chamberlain and the British public were scared by these false "predictions" which were based on the WWI unopposed attacks in daylight and had no relevance for inaccurate nighttime bombing when enemy bombers were subject to AA and fighter defenses.

In World War II a total of 71.27 kilotons of bombs, V1 cruise missiles and V2 supersonic ballistic missiles hit Britain, killing 60,595 and injuring 86,182, a casualty rate of 2 casualties/ton, 60 times fewer than the prediction!

If Chamberlain and - more important - the general public had known the true civilian threat in 1938 from aerial attack instead of the hysterical exaggerations officially promoted, then Hitler might have been stopped with less cost in human lives. Delaying the war gave Germany more time to prepare for war, which made the war worse than it would otherwise have been.

What will happen when Iran gets the U-235, and maybe gets some lithium and heavy water to make lithium deuteride to get a H-bomb (it's now known than lithium-6 deuteride isn't necessary; the 11-Mt Castle-Romeo nuclear test used only natural lithium and was a great success)? It will be just like Munich and Iran will be appeased through fear of a nuclear war.

11:01 AM  
Blogger L. Riofrio said...

Hi nige: Before both Gulf wars some were predicting thousands of allied casualties. We have seen that even "scientific" predictions can be based upon people's preconceptions.

11:16 AM  
Blogger Kea said...

I tried to go to some lectures at this nearby event, but they refused me entry.

3:59 AM  
Blogger L. Riofrio said...

Kea: How unfortunate! Most conferences are open to all. What are they afraid of, someone screaming "You lie?". This is not a good sign for physics.

9:40 AM  
Blogger CarlBrannen said...

The general idea was that peace would be obtained best by arranging for each nationality to have its own country within borders defined by where those people are living. The opposing idea was that Germany must forever remain weak and if some German speakers had to learn Polish, no big deal.

The idea that people should, to the extent possible, be living in countries where all speak the same language, was the American position at the end of WW1. It had been ignored by the Allies who punished Germany and Italy quite severely by carving various territories from them.

This is the way that Europeans had always ended their wars; the transfer of territories in return for peace. This makes complete sense if you think of people as the property of the ruling elite, to be given away without regard to their wishes. The war had started over this sort of thing, an argument over Serbian nationality.

The American position was radical. Would it have led to peace if it had been executed in 1918? And it's also impossible to tell what would have happened if the Poles had been made to give up their German property.

5:15 PM  
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